12
Dec

Autonomy, Delayed: Four Reasons Why Millennials May Not Be Ready For Self-Driving Cars

An Autonomous Future Series: For automobile manufacturers, suppliers, and technology companies, a bold new future has arrived. Technology that adds autonomous features to the driving experience are now available on vehicles by all major manufacturers – inching us ever closer to the day where the driver is a passive, rather than active, participant in the driving experience. To take a closer look at what’s to come, automotive research experts from Market Strategies-Morpace will share their insights in an occasional blog series titled “An Autonomous Future.” In this blog, Dania Rich-Spencer and Stephan Schroeder, Automotive Vice Presidents at Market Strategies-Morpace, share insights about why a consumer panel of millennials do not trust self-driving vehicles and, therefore, would not step foot inside one.

By: Dania Rich-Spencer & Stephan Schroeder – Vice Presidents, Automotive Growth & Innovation

 

To say that autonomous vehicle technology is top of mind for auto manufacturers is a slight understatement.

Across the globe, carmakers are doubling and tripling down on features that will take the power of the driving experience out of the often-unpredictable hands of the car owner, and into the relative algorithmic safety of computer-driven vehicular tech. According to a Brookings Institute study, manufacturers spent more than $80 billion on engineering AV technologies for their cars in 2017. In fact, a majority of this year’s models have incorporated one or more autonomous features — things like lane departure warnings, automated braking, and radar-enabled cruise control.

Framed against this reality, it would be easy to expect that a hands-off future is all but assured. In fact, at the recent ADAS & Autonomous Vehicle USA Conference, engineers spent two days talking about continued refinements that will assure the public’s safety. During one session, in fact, engineers discussed with pride spending considerable resources to understand how many times a pedestrian looks before entering a crosswalk.

So it was surprising — indeed, shocking — to observe these same engineers shift in their seats during a consumer panel discussion facilitated by Suzanne Miller of Morpace on Day 2. During the discussion, five millennials — without hesitating — answered “No” to the most fundamental of questions: “Would you step foot inside an autonomous vehicle?

Though the response was for some a harsh reminder of the consumer challenges that still have to be solved, the question of trust is not a new one — in fact, a poll released earlier this year by the American Automobile Association found that 73 percent of those surveyed are “too afraid” to enter a self-driving car. This is up 10 percentage points from the year prior, and underscores the biggest hurdle facing AV and ADAS tech — one that cannot simply be funded or engineered away.

As we listened to the panelists — varying in background, gender, nationality, and age — we were able to pinpoint:

The four most pervasive reasons why
there is skepticism and fear of self-driving vehicles

Trust and Safety

Topping the list is the overall belief that humans remain best suited to command the driving experience. They readily cite the isolated instances of accidents involving self-driving cars among the top reasons. In other transportation experiences where much of the process is automated – flying aboard a modern commercial jetliner, for instance – there always is a human who will reassuredly step in, they say, if something goes wrong.

The amount of engineering that underlies the self-driving experience, in itself, should be reassuring to the public. In fact, one audience member, in a fit of frustration, asked rhetorically why these people would “rather trust an Uber driver than a well-engineered AV?” Interestingly, panelists cited the number of high ratings and successfully completed journeys on an Uber driver’s profile as affirmation that they know what they’re doing. Something that is not readily available for autonomous vehicles today but may be required to convince consumers of its safety in the future.

It was compelling to hear this from a group that has developed a “learned trust” – a sort of symbiotic relationship – with existing driving tech. This is a public that would not commute beyond their neighborhood without some form of a moving map (trusting its computer-intoned directions implicitly as they are uttered from the dash or smartphone).  But it’s a group that has also learned how flawed technology can be – how imperfect it is at times. They have coped with taking their new $1,000 iPhone out of the box, only to find it doesn’t work. They deal with daily, inexplicable disruptions of their WiFi service. Because of these experiences, they have learned what the limits are to technology. As a result, they have developed a skepticism – and in some cases even fear – that only seems to grow with every new announcement about self-driving vehicles. This underscores the growing need to build consumer trust with the new technology as autonomous vehicles are continually developed.

 

Privacy

Millennials have had a love-hate relationship with the technology that guides their lives. On the one hand, dramatic improvements in tech have given this group more powerful tools and connectedness than ever; on the other, the personal information input into these devices and sites has been under assault. The specter that AV technology will further abridge someone’s privacy appears to be a deal breaker for those who would rather cruise in relative anonymity.

 

Hackers and Bad Actors

All the engineering in the world, said these panelists, cannot correct for the mental deficiencies of those who wish to illegally subvert the technology, or use it for harm. Fears include hacking of cars to disable features, or to use them for nefarious purposes; or some unstable driver inside an AV who uses it to wreak havoc on an unsuspecting public.

 

Liability

Panelists expressed grave concerns about who would ultimately be held responsible for accidents involving AV tech. If I was not steering the car when it hit that pedestrian, why should I be held responsible for the damage inflicted? Sorting out the chain of liability – whether the mobility provider should offer some sort of supplemental insurance for its self-driving technology, or whether the public, through the act of purchasing or renting the car, should remain the liable party – was a clear precondition of their risk/reward decision about this new technology.

 

Given what we learned from a group of smart, articulate millennials, AV manufacturers will need to deliberately guide consumers down the path to a world of autonomous vehicles – on consumers’ terms. Challenges associated with this include: 1) understanding exactly what these terms are, and 2) responding in an empathic manner to meet consumers’ expectations. Conquering these challenges may well represent the Holy Grail between reticence and broad adoption.

At Market StrategiesMorpace, we are working with vehicle manufacturers and technology companies to better understand the human factors that will ultimately lead to a future of new, safe, and widely accepted modes of transportation. If we can be of service, please contact us.

Dania Rich-Spencer & Stephan Schroeder – Vice Presidents, Automotive Growth & Innovation

 

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7
Nov

An Autonomous Future – Electric Vehicle Driver Opinion on Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous connected electric vehicles


For automobile manufacturers, a bold new future has arrived. Technology that adds autonomous features to the driving experience are now available on vehicles by all major manufacturers – inching us ever closer to the day where the driver is a passive, rather than active, participant in the driving experience. To take a closer look at what’s to come, automotive research experts from Market Strategies-Morpace will share their insights in an occasional blog series titled “An Autonomous Future.” In this blog, Stephan Schroeder, Vice President of Automotive Business Development at Market Strategies-Morpace, shares insights about how electric and hybrid vehicle drivers view the advantages and disadvantages of autonomous vehicles.

By: Stephan Schroeder, Vice President of Business Development, Automotive

The prospect of autonomous driving and connected mobility has energized the automotive industry and spurred billions of dollars of investments in autonomy, connectivity, and electrification. While startups and blue-chip corporations alike are convinced about the potential of autonomous vehicles (AV), consumers are more incredulous.

As previously reported in our An Autonomous Future series (Consumer Awareness & Opinion and The Role of the Consumer), media coverage has and will play a critical role in creating driver and rider awareness for AVs, but it is also becoming clear that the transition to this new form of mobility will require a multifaceted approach and unprecedented levels of investment in order to earn their trust.

One group that appears to be further along in their favorable opinion towards autonomous driving are drivers of electric vehicles. In a recent Morpace MyDrivingPower* online survey conducted among over 100 electric vehicle drivers, 3 out of 4 respondents expressed a “very positive” or “somewhat positive” opinion about AVs, more than twice the rate reported by drivers of vehicles with traditional powertrains. Given that difference in favorable opinions and their unique vantage point as early adopters, we took a closer look at the pros and cons of autonomous driving from their perspective.

 

Electric Vehicle Drivers’ Worry Revolves Around AV Tech-Related Challenges

Maybe not surprisingly, the biggest concern has to do with the technology itself. Concerns range from the quality of programming and the risk of being hacked to the inability of drivers to “program” the cars correctly.

And herein lies maybe the biggest challenge for AVs. We all have, over decades, become used to the limits of technology and the fact that it is not fail safe. However, we have accepted this risk because either our lives don’t depend on it (i.e. cell phones, computers, etc.) or because we have experts standing by to jump in if necessary (i.e. pilots, doctors, etc.). When a simple system reboot does not suffice or experts are not physically available, we dial help lines and call upon customer support to aid in our problems.

However, when it comes to AVs: what would happen in the event of an emergency or failure? The thought of being stranded with your family by the roadside and having to navigate through a helpdesk menu or wait hours for a call back is not something that would be acceptable in an autonomous world. Overcoming the doubts about the reliability of the technology and providing a highly responsive, end-user support system will be the two biggest hurdles that mobility providers will have to overcome to gain broad acceptance among consumers.

The next largest challenge has to do with concerns regarding vehicle performance due to bad weather conditions. Additional performance-related comments had to do with poor road conditions or construction. Of course, there is also the question of performance in more demanding environments, such as off-roading, which interestingly enough leads to a related disadvantage mentioned in another category: the thought of having to give up driving and losing the joy of driving a car. Many drivers are not happy about the thought of losing their freedom to drive or the ability to drive themselves.

While less frequent, concerns about liability and data privacy are also weighing heavy on the minds of consumers. Both of these issues tie back to our experience with technology. Who will be responsible in the event of an accident? What damages will be covered and not covered? Who will be responsible for the condition of the vehicle, especially if it is being shared amongst multiple parties? Ironically, some respondents felt that there would actually be more accidents because they did not trust their fellow drivers to behave responsibly or manage the technology properly.

The fear of lack of data privacy points to another significant concern with AVs. Considering the amount of time we spend in our cars and the amount of interaction that will take place through text, voice, video, sensing, etc., AVs will take the question of data privacy to a whole new level. Morpace is planning to explore this and other issues related to the question of trust and autonomous mobility further in one of its upcoming studies.

 

Electric Vehicle Drivers’ Opinion of AV Advantages

When asked about the expected advantages of AVs, electric vehicle drivers have a wide range of expectations, from safety to cost and environmental issues.

Most notably, electric vehicle drivers expect fewer accidents due to a reduction in distractions or unsafe driving. Furthermore, they expect lower cost of insurance, which could be a function of less accidents but also a lower rate of car ownership.

While many also expect less traffic and lower emissions, the verdict for a majority of people is still out, which shows the uncertainty around certain benefits:

  • Will AV lead to less or more cars on the road?
  • Which powertrain technology will prevail?
  • What will be the mix of autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles?

While many people believe that there will be efficiencies due to the use of autonomous vehicles (i.e. faster commutes), it could be offset by higher traffic volumes or the expectation that “the slowest car will dictate speed on the road.”

Finally, electric vehicle drivers pointed out two more major advantages. First, they noted that AVs will provide options for people who either can’t drive due to age, health, income or legal reasons – or who simply don’t want to drive. Secondly, many consumers mentioned that they expect a reduction in stress and greater happiness, which will contribute to a better quality of life and increased productiveness. The luxury of permanently “being taxied by your own car,” as one responded put it, seems to be a very appealing benefit for many drivers.

As a result, when asked how likely they would consider riding in an AV, 72% of electric vehicle drivers said that they would be “very likely “or “somewhat likely” to do so.

 

Time Spent While Driving in AV

For those with the most positive opinion of AVs, what else do they think and feel? When asked what they would do during the drive, the majority of drivers said they would use it to socialize with others, inside or outside of the vehicle, or simply make good use of the time otherwise. That said, many of the comments also revealed the anxiety that electric vehicle drivers feel when it comes to technology. Their comments ranged from “nervously watch the traffic/road,” to “carefully monitor the technology” and “pay full attention to driving and be completely ready to take over controls.”  In other words, while many drivers dream of a more enjoyable and fun ride, they simply can’t imagine a vehicle performing 100% of their activities 100% of the time with 0% failure yet.

 

AV Price Points for Electric Vehicle Driver

So, given all of the pros and cons, how much more would electric vehicle drivers be willing to spend for a vehicle that has autonomous technology?

On average, electric vehicle drivers indicated that they would be willing to pay an additional $6,000, with answers ranging from $1000 at the low end to $10,000 at the upper end.

The bottom-line is that the automotive industry has the attention of electric vehicle drivers and they are willing to pay for the added value. That said, the expectations are high and there is a healthy level of skepticism about the ability of making the technology work. The promise of a better quality of life is a huge opportunity for everyone involved but it will most likely come in baby steps as we learn to feel our way around the new world of unlimited mobility for everyone.

For more information about our AV research or if you have questions, please contact me and visit morpace.com.

 

*MyDrivingPower is an Insight Community comprised of over 500 electric and hybrid vehicle owners across the U.S., which is managed by the automotive market research professionals at Morpace. Results are based on responses from BEV and PHEV vehicles owners only.

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29
Aug

NIMH Info on Suicide Prevention Awareness Month


By Linda Sookman, RN BSN, CPHQ, Lean Six Sigma Greenbelt
Healthcare Quality and Accreditation Consultant

In 2016, NIMH reported that suicide was the 10th leading cause of death overall in the US, and it has increasingly become a more prevalent topic in everyday conversation.

As part of Suicide Prevention Awareness Month in September, Morpace wanted to share the activities and strategies that NIMH is sponsoring. The endorsement of health and safety programs among your at-risk member populations saves lives, and can support positive member experiences. It is important to evaluate your current access and availability processes for members in crisis, coordinate services early in the members’ treatment and avoid more restrictive and costly services.

As you strive to meet your members’ needs, and in the promotion of safe practices, please let us know if there are annual or interim surveys, access and availability projects, or case management program evaluations that Morpace can assist with.

You can contact me at lsookman@morpace.com or 248.756.0532.

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23
Aug

An Autonomous Future: How the Role of the Consumer Will Impact AV Development

An Autonomous Future: How the Role of the Consumer Will Impact AV Development

For automobile manufacturers, a bold new future has arrived. Technology that adds autonomous features to the driving experience are now available on vehicles by all major manufacturers – inching us ever closer to the day where the driver is a passive, rather than active, participant in the driving experience. To take a closer look at what’s to come, automotive research experts from Market Strategies-Morpace will share their insights in an occasional blog series titled “An Autonomous Future.” In this blog, Chris Leiman, Senior Vice President of Automotive at Market Strategies-Morpace, talks about how consumers are influencing the adoption of these autonomous features.

By: Chris Leiman, Senior Vice President, Automotive

 

When most consumers envision an autonomous vehicle (AV), they think of Tesla Autopilot or a Waymo self-driving car powered by Google. They often do not realize that their brand-new car, truck, or SUV already includes added safety features that already make the automobile more autonomous in nature.

Take the Toyota Highlander, for example. This popular sport utility vehicle is equipped with helpful lane departure warnings, along with a feature that pulls drivers back into their current lane with the power of radar. As soon as the driver begins to traverse against lines on the road, the vehicle ensures he or she tracks back safely.

While these features serve as a subtle introduction to the benefits of AV technology, it’s hard for consumers to escape news of incidents involving self-driving vehicles. From grisly reports of accidents with General Motors’ AVs last fall, to the frightening media headlines warning of robotic systems that decide who dies in a crash, AV developers must constantly walk a thin tightrope.

While pushing the technology forward will allow more people and businesses to benefit from it, factors like societal fears and negative media coverage will also continue to shape the outcome and pace of the industry.

As an automotive researcher at Market StrategiesMorpace, my role is centered on the continuous quest to understand consumers and the decisions they make. It’s one of the primary reasons why I have the opportunity to attend the Autonomous Vehicle Conference, an informative and annual event including speakers from all parts of the AV ecosystem.

Through my work at the company and my insights from this conference, I’ve learned much about the potential impact – and role – the consumer will play in the future of self-driving cars. Here are a few of the main and immediate factors influencing the automotive vehicle industry:


Top Consumer Factors Influencing Autonomous Vehicle Development


Media Coverage of the AV Market

Media Coverage of the AV Market Autonomous vehicle technology bears a variety of safety and mobility benefits, including quick transport and automatic driver assistance features. However, consumer acceptance is still a significant barrier to overcome. This is primarily influenced by the media, which focuses on AV accidents and death without detailing the daily triumphs in the industry.

News programming giants have a saying: “If it bleeds, it leads.” While reporting on a pedestrian being killed by a self-driving car, they leave out comparative data, such as the fact that more than 6,000 walkers and bikers were killed by human drivers in 2017. As fatalities rise, autonomous safety features could help reduce these rates.

This is a primary example of how the AV industry must do a better job managing its own narrative. A combined effort by all members of the AV ecosystem will likely be required to change the tone and provide perspective.


Driver/Rider Exposure to ADAS Features

Driver/Rider Exposure to ADAS Features with AVIn addition to better management of news coverage, exposure to Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) features is a critical stepping stone to further consumer acceptance. These include characteristics that are already commonplace in many newer vehicle models, including adaptive cruise control (ACC), adaptive light control, automatic parking, and blind spot monitors. The proliferation of these features, combined with proper messaging and education, will go a long way in developing consumer trust.

One strategy is to gradually expose passengers to the features. Consider the example given by a Lyft representative who spoke at the Autonomous Vehicle Conference. She explained how a self-driving BMW transporting 2018 Consumer Electronics Show attendees included a Lyft employee and a safety driver. Since these two human beings were also in the car, people felt safer. However, the vehicle still completely drove itself.

This speaks to a gradual adoption approach. Once consumers get more exposure to the technology, it will reduce and, presumably, eliminate their anxiety. By safely riding with Lyft employees through multiple rides, for example, the technology will become as familiar as riding in a taxi or regular ride sharing vehicle.

Early technology adopters such as Tesla Autopilot drivers, as well as those eager to try out self-driving cars, will help the industry to convince skeptics over time. Eventually, experts say, benefits like time and convenience will continue to develop within the technology, making them more apparent to the average consumer.


Consumer-Centered Business Models

Consumer-Centered Business Models with AVWe are already witnessing the emergence of various business models in the auto industry. How drivers and riders accept these models will also affect the future development and dispersal of the technology. While companies like Tesla continue to push the self-owned AV, enterprises like Uber and Lyft currently operate with the help of freelance drivers, who are responsible for their own cars.

To become and remain profitable, they will need to develop a viable autonomous vehicle strategy, which could affect their freelance driving program. In addition, the new technology may or may not be acceptable to the consumer. It is possible that the widespread adoption of these brands in their current form will help pave the way for consumers’ autonomous mobility options in the future.

In addition to the ride sharing model, fleets are another option. From ambulances and school buses to programs comparable to Lyft and Uber, maintaining a group of company-owned cars would save money while providing consumers with a seamless experience.

Finally, startups and blue-chip businesses alike will need to focus on the quality of customer experience. From vehicle choices to entertainment options, the enjoyment of the autonomous ride will become nearly as important to the future of the industry as safety benefits.


Ushering Consumers into the AV Revolution

Ushering Consumers into the AV Revolution I’m proud to work for a company like Market Strategies-Morpace that helps AV enterprises use research to support their value proposition. In short, we’ve found that acclimating consumers to self-driving technology while changing the prevailing mindset around AV depends on the in-vehicle experience, how often and how safely they use those cars, and their willingness to pay for the features and services, whether it is their own car or via a pay-per-ride service. Marketing will play a key role for all brands. AV organizations will need to clearly communicate safety benefits and value to their customers to charge for services in the end.

In considering the consumer’s impact on acceptability, I’m reminded of a recent Car and Driver article by illustrious author Malcolm Gladwell. In the piece, he writes about the phenomenon of consumer control. In our society, our ability to choose our vehicle and drive it where we want is a part of the American fabric.

Whether it’s a man who won’t part with his 1968 Corvette or a young mother who doesn’t trust her children to an autonomous vehicle, giving up control of the driving experience will take some time. By staying diligent with market research, gaining better control of the media narrative, and clearly explaining the lifestyle and safety benefits of self-driving cars, the consumer will become more comfortable with – and enthusiastic about – what AVs can do for their lives.

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